Reddit, Inc. [RDDT] — Catalyst Calendar
Catalyst Criteria: MEASURED. Dated events that would confirm or refute the Valuation Criteria implied path. Time works for a long, so a dated event is not required to own a compounder.
As of 2026-07-29. No date below is invented. Every entry is either (a) filed with the SEC, (b) a statutory deadline, or (c) explicitly labelled as an estimate derived from the company's own historical filing cadence, with the prior-year actual dates shown so the estimate can be checked.
1. Confirmed — filed or statutory
| Date | Event | Source | What it tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Logged-in / logged-out DAUq disclosure is discontinued. "Beginning in the quarter ended September 30, 2026, we will no longer report logged-in and logged-out DAUq." | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, filed 2026-05-01 | The single most consequential dated event in this calendar. After the Q3 2026 report there is no filed series separating account-holding users from search-referred traffic. Everything in Research §3 becomes unobservable from that point. An owner who needs that series must extract it from the Q2 2026 report — the last one that will contain it. |
| 2026-06-08 | 2026 Annual Meeting held | 8-K filed 2026-06-10 (Item 5.07) | Past — no open item |
| 2028-01-01 | ASU 2025-06 (internal-use software capitalisation) effective | FY2025 10-K | Capitalisation-policy change; could shift R&D between opex and the balance sheet. Watch, do not act. |
| 2027-01-01 | ASU 2024-03 (expense disaggregation) effective | FY2025 10-K | Positive for transparency. Will force disaggregated income-statement expense disclosure — potentially the first filed view inside cost of revenue and S&M. |
2. Estimated from the company's own filing cadence — labelled, with the evidence
Reddit does not pre-announce earnings dates in its filings. The dates below are estimates, and the prior-year actual dates are shown so the estimate is falsifiable.
| Estimated date | Event | Prior-year actuals | What it tests |
|---|---|---|---|
| ~2026-07-30 to 2026-08-06 | Q2 2026 results (8-K Item 2.02 + Letter to Shareholders + 10-Q) | Q2'25: 8-K 2025-07-31, 10-Q 2025-08-01. Q2'24: 8-K 2024-08-06, 10-Q 2024-08-07 | Imminent, and outside this analysis. Tests: (i) does revenue hit the guided $715–725m; (ii) does US logged-in DAUq growth go negative from +1%; (iii) does ad price growth hold above +25% from +32%; (iv) the last report containing the logged-in/logged-out split. |
| ~2026-10-29 to 2026-11-05 | Q3 2026 results | Q3'25: 8-K 2025-10-30, 10-Q 2025-10-31. Q3'24: 8-K 2024-10-29 | First quarter without the logged-in/logged-out split. Also the seasonal step-up into Q4 advertising. |
| ~2027-02-04 to 2027-02-12 | Q4 / FY2026 results and 10-K | FY2025: 8-K 2026-02-05, 10-K 2026-02-06. FY2024: 8-K 2025-02-12, 10-K 2025-02-13 | Full-year revenue disaggregation (advertising vs other) — the only annual view of the licensing line. Also the FY2026 tax note: the valuation-allowance decision. |
| ~2027-04-29 to 2027-05-06 | Q1 2027 results | Q1'26: 8-K 2026-04-30, 10-Q 2026-05-01 | First full-year comparison against the +69% Q1'26 base. |
3. Contracted, dated, in the filings — the licensing roll-off
Not an "event" with a press release, but a dated cash-flow fact disclosed by the company, and the only forward schedule Reddit publishes:
| Period | Contracted licensing revenue to be recognised | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Remainder of calendar 2026 (Apr–Dec) | $91.6m | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 3 (RPO) |
| Calendar 2027 | $29.0m | Q1 2026 10-Q, Note 3 (RPO) |
| (prior disclosure, FY2025 10-K) | 2026: $118.9m; 2027: $24.8m; total $143.7m | FY2025 10-K, Note 3 |
The contracted book steps down 68% between 2026 and 2027. On $2,473.6m of TTM revenue that is a 2–3% headwind to total revenue in 2027 if nothing renews. It is not a thesis break — see Research §2 — but it is dated, contracted and knowable, and it will land inside the 12-month window.
Renewals are not forecastable from the filings and none is assumed here in either direction.
4. Undated but material — watch list, no invented dates
| Item | Why it matters | Why it has no date |
|---|---|---|
| Third-party search-engine algorithm changes | The company names these as the first driver of its own DAUq trajectory (Q1'26 10-Q). Reddit does not control the input. | Google does not pre-announce ranking or AI-Overview changes. Observable only after the fact, in Reddit's own DAUq series — the series being retired in Q3 2026. |
| Valuation-allowance release | $779.0m allowance against $794.3m of gross DTAs. A release is a large one-time non-cash GAAP gain that would make one quarter's EPS uninterpretable. | Management judgement, disclosed only when taken. Most likely at a fiscal-year assessment (Q4). |
| Reddit Answers | Mentions in the shareholder letters ran 1.7 → 27.6 → 3.5 per 10k words. Either it became plumbing or it did not work. | No disclosed metric of any kind exists. No launch, milestone or adoption date is filed. Nothing is invented here. |
| Any new AI data-licensing agreement | Would move the RPO schedule in §3. | Reddit has not filed an 8-K for a licensing contract and does not name counterparties. |
5. What this calendar means for the Valuation Criteria
The implied-path test requires 29.0%/yr revenue growth for five years (RDDT_Valuation.md §1). Nothing
in the next twelve months settles a five-year question. What the calendar does provide is a sequence of
dated observations on the two legs of the mechanism:
| Leg of the mechanism | Confirmed by | Refuted by | First observable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ad price (+32% YoY) | Q2'26 MD&A price disclosure holding above +25% | Falling below ~+15% | Q2 2026 report, days away |
| Ad load / impressions (+32% YoY) | Impressions growth continuing to exceed DAUq growth | Impressions converging down to DAUq growth (load spent) | Q2 2026 report |
| US users (+7% total, +1% logged-in) | Any re-acceleration | A negative print | Q2 2026 report — and then never again in this form |
| International (RoW DAUq +26%, ARPU +51%) | Continued RoW ARPU >+40% | RoW ARPU decelerating while mix shifts toward the $2.02 geography | Q2 2026 report |
The concentration of information in one imminent report is itself the finding. Q2 2026 is both the most informative event in the calendar and the last one that will carry the disclosure the thesis turns on.